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Raphael Kandra v Felix Göbel (Fri 08 Feb 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 39,805, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Felix Göbel: 9,278, level confidence: 66%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 329% better than Felix Göbel.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 83% better than Felix Göbel in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,862 and 39,805 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 20,674 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 25,128 (based on typical behaviour), Felix Göbel played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Felix Göbel changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Felix Göbel becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ducat Deutsche Einzelmeisterschaften & Esche Amateurmeisterschaften 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 79%, Felix Göbel: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 52%, Felix Göbel: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 39,745, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Felix Göbel: 9,550, level confidence: 53%.