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Raphael Kandra v Johannes Thürauf (Sat 09 Feb 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-2,11-1,11-1.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 39,159, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Johannes Thürauf: 12,549, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 212% better than Johannes Thürauf.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 89% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 725% better than Johannes Thürauf in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 63,672 and Johannes Thürauf at a level of 7,718. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +32% and Johannes Thürauf changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +6.1% and for Johannes Thürauf becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior German Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Raphael Kandra is limited to +5.3% and Johannes Thürauf is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 79%, Johannes Thürauf: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 48%, Johannes Thürauf: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,175, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Johannes Thürauf: 11,934, level confidence: 55%.