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Mark Woodliffe v Daryl Selby (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 7-11,10-12,8-11.

Starting level for Mark Woodliffe: 8,520, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,852, level confidence: 65%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 391% better than Mark Woodliffe.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 42% better than Mark Woodliffe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 42%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,452 and 41,852 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 12,286, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 24,419 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Woodliffe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 42%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -0.6% and Mark Woodliffe changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -0.2% and for Mark Woodliffe becomes +5%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Mark Woodliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is 0% and for Mark Woodliffe is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 81%, Mark Woodliffe: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 44%, Mark Woodliffe: 42%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Woodliffe: 8,824, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 41,916, level confidence: 44%.