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Adrian Waller v Tom Bamford (Tue 05 Feb 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 42,350, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Bamford: 9,901, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 328% better than Tom Bamford.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 106% better than Tom Bamford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,101 and 42,350 without affecting his level.

In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 23,385 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 26,780 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Bamford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to 0% and Tom Bamford changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes 0% and for Tom Bamford becomes +2.4%.

Given Tom Bamford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is 0% and for Tom Bamford is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 90%, Tom Bamford: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 62%, Tom Bamford: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 42,287, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tom Bamford: 10,039, level confidence: 62%.