Jon Tate v Marcus Hayes (Mon 14 Jan 2019)
Match won by Jon Tate. Result: 10-12,11-8,10-12,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Jon Tate:
8,150, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
7,865, level confidence: 65%.
Jon Tate to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Marcus Hayes.
Jon Tate won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Tate played
11% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Tate actually played at a level of
8,447 and Marcus Hayes at a level of
7,589. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Tate changes to +3.6% and Marcus Hayes changes to -2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Tate becomes +1.7% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -1.5%.
Given Jon Tate's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.8% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jon Tate is +1.1% and for Marcus Hayes is -1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Tate: 73%, Marcus Hayes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Tate: 70%, Marcus Hayes: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jon Tate:
8,232, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
7,775, level confidence: 78%.