Stuart Ayton v Michael McLaughlin (Sun 13 Jan 2019)
Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-4,6-11,6-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Stuart Ayton:
8,244, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
9,271, level confidence: 68%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Stuart Ayton.
Michael McLaughlin won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played
22% better than Stuart Ayton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of
9,653 and Stuart Ayton at a level of
7,918. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +3.9% and Stuart Ayton changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +1.7% and for Stuart Ayton becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 82%, Stuart Ayton: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 79%, Stuart Ayton: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Ayton:
8,093, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
9,418, level confidence: 79%.