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Nick Mulvey v Marcus Cowie (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nick Mulvey. Result: 12-10,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Nick Mulvey: 16,967, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Cowie: 7,820, level confidence: 66%.
Nick Mulvey to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Marcus Cowie.

Nick Mulvey won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Mulvey played 127% better than Marcus Cowie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Mulvey actually played at a level of 17,342 and Marcus Cowie at a level of 7,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey changes to +1.3% and Marcus Cowie changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey becomes +0.6% and for Marcus Cowie becomes -0.8%.

Given Nick Mulvey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Cowie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Mulvey is +0.3% and for Marcus Cowie is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Mulvey: 87%, Marcus Cowie: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Mulvey: 85%, Marcus Cowie: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Mulvey: 16,997, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Marcus Cowie: 7,767, level confidence: 80%.