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Jacques Duminy v Paul Gonzalez (Sat 05 Jan 2019)

Match won by Jacques Duminy. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Jacques Duminy: 8,634, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,825, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Jacques Duminy to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Jacques Duminy won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jacques Duminy played 120% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jacques Duminy actually played at a level of 11,386 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 5,175. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jacques Duminy changes to +28% and Paul Gonzalez changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jacques Duminy becomes +7.4% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Gonzalez is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jacques Duminy: 76%, Paul Gonzalez: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jacques Duminy: 58%, Paul Gonzalez: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jacques Duminy: 9,294, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,637, level confidence: 64%.