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Cindy Merlo v Julia Le Coq (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Cindy Merlo. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Cindy Merlo: 5,532, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 2,749, level confidence: 65%.
Cindy Merlo to win as she is currently playing 101% better than Julia Le Coq.

Cindy Merlo won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cindy Merlo played 74% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cindy Merlo was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 4,230 and 5,532 without affecting her level.

In this case, Cindy Merlo played at level 4,806 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cindy Merlo would normally have been playing at level 4,837 (based on typical behaviour), Julia Le Coq played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cindy Merlo changes to 0% and Julia Le Coq changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cindy Merlo becomes 0% and for Julia Le Coq becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internazionali Ditalia' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cindy Merlo: 75%, Julia Le Coq: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cindy Merlo: 70%, Julia Le Coq: 75%.

Final level for Cindy Merlo: 5,532, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq: 2,757, level confidence: 75%.