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Sebastien Bonmalais v Jordan Greenberg (Wed 12 Dec 2018)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 24,615, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jordan Greenberg: 9,923, level confidence: 10%.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 148% better than Jordan Greenberg.

Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 154% better than Jordan Greenberg in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of 24,900 and Jordan Greenberg at a level of 9,809. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to 0% and Jordan Greenberg changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +0% and for Jordan Greenberg becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 80%, Jordan Greenberg: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 79%, Jordan Greenberg: 31%.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 24,627, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jordan Greenberg: 9,887, level confidence: 31%.