Sebastien Bonmalais v Jordan Greenberg (Wed 12 Dec 2018)
Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Sebastien Bonmalais:
24,615, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Jordan Greenberg:
9,923, level confidence: 10%.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing
148% better than Jordan Greenberg.
Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played
154% better than Jordan Greenberg in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of
24,900 and Jordan Greenberg at a level of
9,809. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to 0% and Jordan Greenberg changes to -0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +0% and for Jordan Greenberg becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 80%, Jordan Greenberg: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 79%, Jordan Greenberg: 31%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais:
24,627, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jordan Greenberg:
9,887, level confidence: 31%.