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Denis Gilevskiy v Paul Gonzalez (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Denis Gilevskiy. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Denis Gilevskiy: 10,142, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,749, level confidence: 66%.
Denis Gilevskiy to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Denis Gilevskiy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Denis Gilevskiy played 53% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

In this case, Denis Gilevskiy played at level 9,033 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Denis Gilevskiy would normally have been playing at level 9,269 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Gonzalez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Denis Gilevskiy changes to 0% and Paul Gonzalez changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Denis Gilevskiy becomes 0% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Denis Gilevskiy: 78%, Paul Gonzalez: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Denis Gilevskiy: 73%, Paul Gonzalez: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Denis Gilevskiy: 10,167, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,823, level confidence: 75%.