Pablo Richet v Miguel Duarte (Sat 03 Nov 2018)
Match won by Pablo Richet. Result: 8-11,9-11,11-6,11-3,11-6.
Starting level for
Pablo Richet:
4,257, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Miguel Duarte:
4,605, level confidence: 61%.
Miguel Duarte to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Pablo Richet.
Pablo Richet won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pablo Richet played
16% better than Miguel Duarte in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pablo Richet actually played at a level of
4,774 and Miguel Duarte at a level of
4,106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pablo Richet changes to +8.5% and Miguel Duarte changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pablo Richet becomes +3.5% and for Miguel Duarte becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Miguel Duarte has already dropped 11% since starting this event at level 5117. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Miguel Duarte's drop for this match has been limited to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pablo Richet: 92%, Miguel Duarte: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pablo Richet: 82%, Miguel Duarte: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Pablo Richet:
4,415, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Miguel Duarte:
4,605, level confidence: 70%.