Michael McLaughlin v Lewis Milner (Wed 05 Dec 2018)
Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-6,13-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
8,620, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Lewis Milner:
6,388, level confidence: 62%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Lewis Milner.
Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played
40% better than Lewis Milner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of
8,795 and Lewis Milner at a level of
6,261. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +1.7% and Lewis Milner changes to -1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +0.9% and for Lewis Milner becomes -0.9%.
Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.
Given Lewis Milner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +0.6% and for Lewis Milner is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 77%, Lewis Milner: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 75%, Lewis Milner: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
8,687, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Lewis Milner:
6,358, level confidence: 77%.