Joel Makin v Ben Coleman (Sun 02 Dec 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
52,955, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
30,377, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Ben Coleman.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
106% better than Ben Coleman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
57,600 and Ben Coleman at a level of
27,927. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +6.6% and Ben Coleman changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.7% and for Ben Coleman becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 74%, Ben Coleman: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 68%, Ben Coleman: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
53,510, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
30,172, level confidence: 86%.