SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Arturo Salazar v Mostafa Asal (Fri 30 Nov 2018)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 36,914, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 31,286, level confidence: 69%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Mostafa Asal.

Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 136% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arturo Salazar actually played at a level of 52,175 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 22,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to +32% and Mostafa Asal changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes +6.2% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Arturo Salazar is limited to +5.4% and Mostafa Asal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 90%, Mostafa Asal: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 64%, Mostafa Asal: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 38,855, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 29,807, level confidence: 59%.