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Arturo Salazar v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-9,11-7,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 36,809, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 29,523, level confidence: 55%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Arturo Salazar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 22% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

In this case, Arturo Salazar played at level 36,084 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arturo Salazar would normally have been playing at level 36,225 (based on typical behaviour), Iker Pajares Bernabeu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to 0% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes 0% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 82%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 81%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 36,735, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 29,716, level confidence: 73%.