James Willstrop v Youssef Mahmoud (Sun 02 Dec 2018)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-5,11-13,6-11,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
41,048, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Youssef Mahmoud:
30,242, level confidence: 26%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Youssef Mahmoud.
James Willstrop won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
10% better than Youssef Mahmoud in this match.
As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 35,788, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 39,836 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Mahmoud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 7.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -2.3% and Youssef Mahmoud changes to +7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.9% and for Youssef Mahmoud becomes +2.2%.
Given James Willstrop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change.
Given Youssef Mahmoud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for James Willstrop is -0.4% and for Youssef Mahmoud is +1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 82%, Youssef Mahmoud: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 74%, Youssef Mahmoud: 46%.
Final level for James Willstrop:
40,883, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Youssef Mahmoud:
30,569, level confidence: 46%.