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Alisdair Shapcott v Peter Billson (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 5-11,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Alisdair Shapcott: 8,792, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,772, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Alisdair Shapcott.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 56% better than Alisdair Shapcott in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,957 and 16,772 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Billson played at level 14,341 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 14,954 (based on typical behaviour), Alisdair Shapcott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to 0% and Alisdair Shapcott changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes 0% and for Alisdair Shapcott becomes +1.6%.

Given Alisdair Shapcott's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is 0% and for Alisdair Shapcott is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 86%, Alisdair Shapcott: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 78%, Alisdair Shapcott: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alisdair Shapcott: 8,869, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 16,747, level confidence: 78%.