Adam Auckland v Man Tong Chua (Tue 20 Nov 2018)
Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
Adam Auckland:
20,870, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Man Tong Chua:
8,157, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing
156% better than Man Tong Chua.
Adam Auckland won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played
46% better than Man Tong Chua in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adam Auckland was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,576 and 20,870 without affecting his level.
As Adam Auckland has played below his allowed range at 12,718, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 16,832 (based on typical behaviour), Man Tong Chua played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to -4.2% and Man Tong Chua changes to +9.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes -1.5% and for Man Tong Chua becomes +3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 78%, Man Tong Chua: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 59%, Man Tong Chua: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adam Auckland:
20,552, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Man Tong Chua:
8,419, level confidence: 65%.