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Sebastien Bonmalais v Abhay Singh (Fri 16 Nov 2018)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-4,11-9,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,989, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 20,143, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Abhay Singh.

Sebastien Bonmalais won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 23% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of 24,393 and Abhay Singh at a level of 19,810. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to +1.5% and Abhay Singh changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +0.6% and for Abhay Singh becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 93%, Abhay Singh: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 92%, Abhay Singh: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 24,040, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 20,136, level confidence: 92%.