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Youssef Soliman v Tarek Shehata (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 33,761, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Shehata: 18,899, level confidence: 61%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Tarek Shehata.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 136% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 38,781 and Tarek Shehata at a level of 16,453. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +8.6% and Tarek Shehata changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.2% and for Tarek Shehata becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 88%, Tarek Shehata: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 77%, Tarek Shehata: 68%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 34,516, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata: 18,350, level confidence: 68%.