Youssef Soliman v Tarek Shehata (Thu 15 Nov 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
33,761, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tarek Shehata:
18,899, level confidence: 61%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Tarek Shehata.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
136% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
38,781 and Tarek Shehata at a level of
16,453. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 10.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +8.6% and Tarek Shehata changes to -10.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.2% and for Tarek Shehata becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 88%, Tarek Shehata: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 77%, Tarek Shehata: 68%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
34,516, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata:
18,350, level confidence: 68%.