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Declan James v Richard Campbell (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-3,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Declan James: 41,081, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Campbell: 6,323, level confidence: 68%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 550% better than Richard Campbell.

Declan James won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 75% better than Richard Campbell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,890 and 41,081 without affecting his level.

In this case, Declan James played at level 15,174 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 20,807 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Campbell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 37%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Richard Campbell changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes 0% and for Richard Campbell becomes +4.4%.

Given Richard Campbell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Declan James is 0% and for Richard Campbell is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 89%, Richard Campbell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 46%, Richard Campbell: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 41,020, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Richard Campbell: 6,509, level confidence: 43%.