Edmon Lopez Moller v Ondrej Uherka (Fri 09 Nov 2018)
Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-3,9-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
28,848, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
15,837, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing
82% better than Ondrej Uherka.
Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played
44% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.
As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 23,217, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 26,112 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 5.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -1.3% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -0.5% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 80%, Ondrej Uherka: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 71%, Ondrej Uherka: 77%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
28,694, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
16,098, level confidence: 77%.