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Edmon Lopez Moller v Ondrej Uherka (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-3,9-11,11-4.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,848, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,837, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 44% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 23,217, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 26,112 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -1.3% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -0.5% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 80%, Ondrej Uherka: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 71%, Ondrej Uherka: 77%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,694, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,098, level confidence: 77%.