Youssef Soliman v Addeen Idrakie (Thu 08 Nov 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,598, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Addeen Idrakie:
18,733, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
90% better than Addeen Idrakie.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
56% better than Addeen Idrakie in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,375 and 35,598 without affecting his level.
In this case, Youssef Soliman played at level 30,518 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 31,782 (based on typical behaviour), Addeen Idrakie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to 0% and Addeen Idrakie changes to +3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes 0% and for Addeen Idrakie becomes +1.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 86%, Addeen Idrakie: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 78%, Addeen Idrakie: 77%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,598, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Addeen Idrakie:
18,977, level confidence: 77%.