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Sohdi Nat v Marcus Hayes (Mon 05 Nov 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 8-11,10-12,6-11.

Starting level for Sohdi Nat: 4,363, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,589, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Sohdi Nat.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 46% better than Sohdi Nat in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Marcus Hayes was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,471 and 8,589 without affecting his level.

As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 6,422, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 7,574 (based on typical behaviour), Sohdi Nat played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -0.5% and Sohdi Nat changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -0.3% and for Sohdi Nat becomes +2.8%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is 0% and for Sohdi Nat is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 89%, Sohdi Nat: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 76%, Sohdi Nat: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sohdi Nat: 4,465, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,594, level confidence: 76%.