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Bernat Jaume v Todd Harrity (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-5,7-11,11-5.

Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 27,238, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 33,702, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Bernat Jaume.

Bernat Jaume won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played 12% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of 32,031 and Todd Harrity at a level of 28,659. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +14% and Todd Harrity changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +3.4% and for Todd Harrity becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 91%, Todd Harrity: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 77%, Todd Harrity: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bernat Jaume: 28,114, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,578, level confidence: 73%.