Mohamed Elshorbagy v Simon Rösner (Sat 13 Oct 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 8-11,11-8,6-11,11-8,11-4.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
65,866, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
59,166, level confidence: 67%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Simon Rösner.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
10% better than Simon Rösner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of
65,615 and Simon Rösner at a level of
59,393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Simon Rösner changes to +0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -0.1% and for Simon Rösner becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 93%, Simon Rösner: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 93%, Simon Rösner: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
65,720, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
59,402, level confidence: 82%.