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Greg Lobban v Campbell Grayson (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-6,5-11,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,516, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 31,597, level confidence: 58%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Campbell Grayson.

Greg Lobban won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 11% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

As Greg Lobban has played below his allowed range at 36,860, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 39,698 (based on typical behaviour), Campbell Grayson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to -3.7% and Campbell Grayson changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes -1.3% and for Campbell Grayson becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 86%, Campbell Grayson: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 80%, Campbell Grayson: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,053, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 32,254, level confidence: 70%.