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Fredrik Johnson v Carlos Mendes (Sat 06 Oct 2018)

Match won by Fredrik Johnson. Result: 9-11,11-1,11-1,11-0.

Starting level for Fredrik Johnson: 12,313, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Carlos Mendes: 6,094, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Carlos Mendes.

Fredrik Johnson won 75% of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 223% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fredrik Johnson played 90% better than Carlos Mendes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Fredrik Johnson was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,391 and 12,313 without affecting his level.

In this case, Fredrik Johnson played at level 11,601 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Carlos Mendes is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fredrik Johnson: 78%, Carlos Mendes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fredrik Johnson: 75%, Carlos Mendes: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fredrik Johnson: 12,295, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Carlos Mendes: 6,085, level confidence: 83%.