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Fredrik Johnson v Adrian Leeson (Fri 05 Oct 2018)

Match won by Fredrik Johnson. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Fredrik Johnson: 12,551, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Adrian Leeson: 4,571, level confidence: 33%.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing 175% better than Adrian Leeson.

Fredrik Johnson won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fredrik Johnson played 106% better than Adrian Leeson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Fredrik Johnson was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,726 and 12,551 without affecting his level.

In this case, Fredrik Johnson played at level 9,635 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Fredrik Johnson would normally have been playing at level 9,847 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Leeson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fredrik Johnson changes to 0% and Adrian Leeson changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fredrik Johnson becomes 0% and for Adrian Leeson becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'German Masters Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fredrik Johnson: 68%, Adrian Leeson: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fredrik Johnson: 59%, Adrian Leeson: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fredrik Johnson: 12,532, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Adrian Leeson: 4,600, level confidence: 50%.