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Mark Fuller v Adam Auckland (Wed 03 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mark Fuller. Result: 11-9,11-7,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Mark Fuller: 20,417, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 24,463, level confidence: 53%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mark Fuller.

Mark Fuller won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Fuller played 22% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Fuller actually played at a level of 24,660 and Adam Auckland at a level of 20,254. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Fuller changes to +14% and Adam Auckland changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Fuller becomes +3.6% and for Adam Auckland becomes -4.3%.

Given Mark Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Fuller is +1.9% and for Adam Auckland is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Fuller: 84%, Adam Auckland: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Fuller: 70%, Adam Auckland: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Fuller: 20,861, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 24,004, level confidence: 61%.