Max Lee v Yannik Omlor (Wed 19 Sep 2018)
Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-8,11-0,11-6.
Starting level for
Max Lee:
38,044, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Yannik Omlor:
17,544, level confidence: 67%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing
117% better than Yannik Omlor.
Max Lee won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played
136% better than Yannik Omlor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of
39,664 and Yannik Omlor at a level of
16,827. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +2.9% and Yannik Omlor changes to -2.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +1.1% and for Yannik Omlor becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 76%, Yannik Omlor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 73%, Yannik Omlor: 78%.
Final level for Max Lee:
38,464, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Yannik Omlor:
17,353, level confidence: 78%.