Simon Rösner v Joel Makin (Fri 07 Sep 2018)
Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-5,11-7,8-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
56,782, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
46,703, level confidence: 68%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Joel Makin.
Simon Rösner won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played
30% better than Joel Makin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of
58,806 and Joel Makin at a level of
45,095. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +3.2% and Joel Makin changes to -3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +1.1% and for Joel Makin becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 82%, Joel Makin: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 80%, Joel Makin: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
57,048, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
46,368, level confidence: 79%.