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Wong Chi Him v Adam Auckland (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-13,11-9,11-9,14-12.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 20,807, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 25,634, level confidence: 57%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Wong Chi Him.

Wong Chi Him won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 20% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of 25,280 and Adam Auckland at a level of 21,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +17% and Adam Auckland changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +4% and for Adam Auckland becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World University Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 81%, Adam Auckland: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 67%, Adam Auckland: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 21,575, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 24,587, level confidence: 62%.