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Miguel Rodriguez v Robertino Pezzota (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-4,14-12,11-2.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 54,170, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Robertino Pezzota: 27,783, level confidence: 66%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Robertino Pezzota.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 100% better than Robertino Pezzota in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 54,864 and Robertino Pezzota at a level of 27,432. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +0.9% and Robertino Pezzota changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +0.3% and for Robertino Pezzota becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 75%, Robertino Pezzota: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 74%, Robertino Pezzota: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 54,153, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota: 27,774, level confidence: 80%.