Borja Golan v Patrick Strobl (Mon 27 Aug 2018)
Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-5.
Starting level for
Borja Golan:
43,497, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for
Patrick Strobl:
2,221, level confidence: 23%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing
1858% better than Patrick Strobl.
Borja Golan won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played
313% better than Patrick Strobl in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Borja Golan was taking it easy by anything up to 71%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,702 and 43,497 without affecting his level.
In this case, Borja Golan played at level 10,782 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 12,689 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Strobl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to 0% and Patrick Strobl changes to +3.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes 0% and for Patrick Strobl becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 62%, Patrick Strobl: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 28%, Patrick Strobl: 22%.
Final level for Borja Golan:
43,497, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for Patrick Strobl:
2,276, level confidence: 22%.