Rex Hedrick v Luke Jones (Fri 10 Aug 2018)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-1.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
33,919, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Luke Jones:
13,339, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
154% better than Luke Jones.
Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
200% better than Luke Jones in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of
36,842 and Luke Jones at a level of
12,281. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 5.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +5.3% and Luke Jones changes to -3.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +1.6% and for Luke Jones becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bega Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 74%, Luke Jones: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 68%, Luke Jones: 82%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
34,469, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Luke Jones:
13,132, level confidence: 82%.