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Dimitri Steinmann v Sebastien Bonmalais (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Dimitri Steinmann. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 24,907, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 24,150, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Dimitri Steinmann to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Sebastien Bonmalais.

Dimitri Steinmann won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dimitri Steinmann played 175% better than Sebastien Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dimitri Steinmann actually played at a level of 40,671 and Sebastien Bonmalais at a level of 14,789. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann changes to +60% and Sebastien Bonmalais changes to -62%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +11% and for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australia Incorporating Victorian Graded Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dimitri Steinmann is limited to +6.1% and Sebastien Bonmalais is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dimitri Steinmann: 87%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dimitri Steinmann: 53%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 26,441, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,018, level confidence: 52%.