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Mattéo Cremoux v Dan Haggarty (Sun 15 Jul 2018)

Match won by Mattéo Cremoux. Result: 11-3,7-11,11-9,12-14,11-8.

Starting level for Mattéo Cremoux: 4,004, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Haggarty: 3,993, level confidence: 51%.
Mattéo Cremoux to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Dan Haggarty.

Mattéo Cremoux won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mattéo Cremoux played 11% better than Dan Haggarty in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mattéo Cremoux actually played at a level of 4,220 and Dan Haggarty at a level of 3,789. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mattéo Cremoux changes to +3.7% and Dan Haggarty changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mattéo Cremoux becomes +2.1% and for Dan Haggarty becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dutch Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Dan Haggarty has already dropped 10.7% since starting this event at level 4422. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Dan Haggarty's drop for this match has been limited to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mattéo Cremoux: 87%, Dan Haggarty: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mattéo Cremoux: 82%, Dan Haggarty: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mattéo Cremoux: 4,097, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Dan Haggarty: 3,980, level confidence: 68%.