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Miguel Rodriguez v Alejandro Enriquez (Fri 20 Jul 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 54,016, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Alejandro Enriquez: 11,194, level confidence: 57%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 383% better than Alejandro Enriquez.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 136% better than Alejandro Enriquez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,782 and 54,016 without affecting his level.

In this case, Miguel Rodriguez played at level 28,990 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 31,852 (based on typical behaviour), Alejandro Enriquez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to 0% and Alejandro Enriquez changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes 0% and for Alejandro Enriquez becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 60%, Alejandro Enriquez: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 42%, Alejandro Enriquez: 53%.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 54,016, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Alejandro Enriquez: 11,344, level confidence: 53%.