Alex Preston v Tom James (Tue 26 Jun 2018)
Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 15-7,15-13,15-11.
Starting level for
Alex Preston:
6,645, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom James:
4,762, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Tom James.
Alex Preston won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played
48% better than Tom James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of
6,853 and Tom James at a level of
4,618. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to +2.6% and Tom James changes to -2.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes +1.4% and for Tom James becomes -1.5%.
Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is +0.8% and for Tom James is -1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 86%, Tom James: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 83%, Tom James: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alex Preston:
6,690, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Tom James:
4,710, level confidence: 86%.