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Evan Williams v Rex Hedrick (Fri 29 Jun 2018)

Match won by Evan Williams. Result: 11-7,11-4,3-11,11-9.

Starting level for Evan Williams: 20,843, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,818, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Evan Williams.

Evan Williams won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Evan Williams played 22% better than Rex Hedrick in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Evan Williams actually played at a level of 28,002 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 22,939. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Evan Williams changes to +27% and Rex Hedrick changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Evan Williams becomes +6% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Squashxl Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rex Hedrick is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Evan Williams: 90%, Rex Hedrick: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Evan Williams: 67%, Rex Hedrick: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Evan Williams: 22,061, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick: 29,365, level confidence: 67%.