Marcus Hayes v Lewis Anderson (Mon 11 Jun 2018)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-5,11-13,8-11,11-6,5-11.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,815, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
10,706, level confidence: 58%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Marcus Hayes.
Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
8% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 9,930, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 10,577 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Hayes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -4.3% and Marcus Hayes changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.8% and for Marcus Hayes becomes +1.7%.
Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is -0.8% and for Marcus Hayes is +0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 76%, Marcus Hayes: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 72%, Marcus Hayes: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,877, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
10,601, level confidence: 72%.