Keith Timms v Tom Elgood (Thu 07 Jun 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-5,8-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,303, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Tom Elgood:
6,427, level confidence: 58%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
45% better than Tom Elgood.
Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
15% better than Tom Elgood in this match.
As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 7,941, his level reduction is 7.7% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,920 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Elgood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 8.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -5.4% and Tom Elgood changes to +8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -2.1% and for Tom Elgood becomes +3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 82%, Tom Elgood: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 73%, Tom Elgood: 68%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,108, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tom Elgood:
6,623, level confidence: 68%.