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Jahangir Hussain v Andy Waugh (Tue 29 May 2018)

Match won by Jahangir Hussain. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,732, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Waugh: 2,484, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Jahangir Hussain to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Andy Waugh.

Jahangir Hussain won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jahangir Hussain was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,556 and 4,732 without affecting his level.

As Jahangir Hussain has played below his allowed range at 3,323, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Jahangir Hussain would normally have been playing at level 4,221 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Waugh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 12% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 9.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain changes to -4% and Andy Waugh changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain becomes -2.1% and for Andy Waugh becomes +4.1%.

Given Jahangir Hussain's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Given Andy Waugh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Surrey Colets Internal League' so the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain is -0.7% and for Andy Waugh is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jahangir Hussain: 89%, Andy Waugh: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jahangir Hussain: 72%, Andy Waugh: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,697, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Andy Waugh: 2,529, level confidence: 76%.