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Fergus Richards v Marcus Hayes (Mon 21 May 2018)

Match won by Fergus Richards. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Fergus Richards: 9,137, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 9,162, level confidence: 54%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Fergus Richards.

Fergus Richards won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fergus Richards played 83% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fergus Richards actually played at a level of 12,388 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 6,757. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fergus Richards changes to +33% and Marcus Hayes changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fergus Richards becomes +8.4% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -8.9%.

Given Fergus Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Fergus Richards is +4.2% and for Marcus Hayes is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fergus Richards: 76%, Marcus Hayes: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fergus Richards: 56%, Marcus Hayes: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fergus Richards: 9,511, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,773, level confidence: 54%.