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Ali Farag v Borja Golan (Tue 24 Apr 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 60,305, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 41,902, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Borja Golan.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 136% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 77,177 and Borja Golan at a level of 32,742. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +22% and Borja Golan changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +4.3% and for Borja Golan becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 89%, Borja Golan: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 69%, Borja Golan: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 62,359, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 40,417, level confidence: 69%.