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Rory Gilligan v Paul Stroud (Fri 20 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rory Gilligan. Result: 11-5,11-7,10-12,11-8.

Starting level for Rory Gilligan: 6,056, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,249, level confidence: 58%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Rory Gilligan.

Rory Gilligan won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Gilligan played 28% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rory Gilligan actually played at a level of 7,499 and Paul Stroud at a level of 5,854. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Gilligan changes to +22% and Paul Stroud changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Gilligan becomes +6.5% and for Paul Stroud becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Gilligan: 67%, Paul Stroud: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Gilligan: 54%, Paul Stroud: 62%.

Final level for Rory Gilligan: 6,450, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 6,911, level confidence: 62%.