Rory Gilligan v Paul Stroud (Fri 20 Apr 2018)
Match won by Rory Gilligan. Result: 11-5,11-7,10-12,11-8.
Starting level for
Rory Gilligan:
6,056, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for
Paul Stroud:
7,249, level confidence: 58%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Rory Gilligan.
Rory Gilligan won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Gilligan played
28% better than Paul Stroud in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rory Gilligan actually played at a level of
7,499 and Paul Stroud at a level of
5,854. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Gilligan changes to +22% and Paul Stroud changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Gilligan becomes +6.5% and for Paul Stroud becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Gilligan: 67%, Paul Stroud: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Gilligan: 54%, Paul Stroud: 62%.
Final level for Rory Gilligan:
6,450, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Paul Stroud:
6,911, level confidence: 62%.