Alexander Portz v Keith Timms (Wed 11 Apr 2018)
Match won by Alexander Portz. Result: 11-5,11-6,10-12,11-8.
Starting level for
Alexander Portz:
9,813, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,336, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Alexander Portz to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Keith Timms.
Alexander Portz won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexander Portz played
30% better than Keith Timms in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alexander Portz actually played at a level of
10,893 and Keith Timms at a level of
8,410. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexander Portz changes to +10.7% and Keith Timms changes to -8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexander Portz becomes +3.4% and for Keith Timms becomes -2.9%.
Given Alexander Portz's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.
Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Alexander Portz is +2.2% and for Keith Timms is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexander Portz: 85%, Keith Timms: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexander Portz: 77%, Keith Timms: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alexander Portz:
10,049, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,188, level confidence: 85%.