Ramy Ashour v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Sun 18 Mar 2018)
Match won by Ramy Ashour. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Ramy Ashour:
61,370, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
68,556, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Ramy Ashour.
Ramy Ashour won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramy Ashour played
47% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramy Ashour actually played at a level of
78,718 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of
53,448. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour changes to +27% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour becomes +4.9% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramy Ashour: 80%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramy Ashour: 62%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ramy Ashour:
64,180, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
67,286, level confidence: 74%.